- John Mateer struggles against SEC defenses and only rushed for 23 yards when these teams met earlier this season.
- Ty Simpson torched Oklahoma for 326 yards in their previous matchup and consistently hits the over against conference opponents.
- Alabama’s field goal pattern shows they kick multiple when they kick at all, making the scoring prop worth the risk at +875.
NORMAN, Okla. – Alabama and Oklahoma square off in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal, offering bettors some compelling angles as these programs renew their rivalry. The Crimson Tide dominated the first meeting, though the heightened stakes of playoff football can change how teams perform.
Mateer’s Rushing Struggles Continue
- John Mateer Under 34.5 Rushing Yards -115
John Mateer’s under 34.5 rushing yards at -115 is an attractive choice because his rushing output has been erratic this season. Although he has averaged about 37 yards per game this season, he has only exceeded this mark in four out of eleven games.
The first encounter between these squads provides the most revealing clue. Against Alabama’s defense, Mateer only managed 23 rushing yards, which is far less than the current line. He has only cleared this threshold in two of eight games, specifically against SEC opponents. There is a chance here because legal CFB sportsbooks seem to be giving his season average more weight than his real game-by-game consistency.
Simpson Poised for Big Day Through the Air
- Ty Simpson Over 240.5 Passing Yards -115
Ty Simpson’s over 240.5 passing yards at -115 tell an entirely different tale. He cleared this figure in eight of the thirteen games this season, despite his recent cold streak of three consecutive unders. At 251 yards per game on average, he is well above the cutoff.
The most fascinating aspect is Simpson’s prior performance against Oklahoma. For 326 yards in their last encounter, he completely destroyed them. With six overs in conference play, his record versus SEC defenses is still solid, despite the fact that legal sports betting markets may be overreacting to his recent collapse. There are good odds available on Alabama betting sites for a quarterback who has demonstrated his ability to dominate this particular opponent.
High-Risk, High-Reward Scoring Prop
- Each Team 2+ TDs & 2+ FGs +875
The most intriguing play comes with each team to score 2+ touchdowns and 2+ field goals at +875. Oklahoma averages 2.5 touchdowns per game, whereas Alabama frequently finds the end zone and scores 3.5 touchdowns per game. With 2.1 field goals per game, the Sooners rank fourth in the country, so their share of this wager appears to be fairly dependable.
At first, there are some concerns because the Crimson Tide only average 1.1 field goals per game. Due to Alabama’s low kicking totals, Oklahoma sportsbooks are probably charging a higher price for this wager. However, there’s a noteworthy and intriguing tendency. Alabama typically kicks more than one field goal during a game when they do. The likelihood that they will be back out there for another before the final whistle increases significantly when they line up for that initial try.
