French Open 2025 Betting: Why Fading Alcaraz Is A Smart Bet

• Carlos Alcaraz enters Roland-Garros as the betting favorite (+125 odds), but his quarterfinal draw is stacked with dangerous opponents.
• Jack Draper (+3300) and Arthur Fils (+5000) offer better value for bettors, with favorable early matchups and long-shot upside.
• Despite strong clay resumes, Alexander Zverev (+1400) and Lorenzo Musetti (+2500) carry risk, one due to inconsistency, the other to a brutal draw.

PARIS – The 2025 French Open draw was announced Thursday, unveiling a challenging path for top contenders. Carlos Alcaraz has been one of the most dominant players on clay this season, and his run-up to Roland-Garros has been nothing short of impressive.

He just claimed the Rome Masters title, dropping only one set while dispatching Sinner, Musetti, Draper, and Khachanov this year. Add that to his Monte Carlo title and a finals appearance in Barcelona (losing to Rune), and it’s easy to see why tennis betting sites have him entering Paris as a favorite.

But betting the favorite doesn’t always mean betting smart.

The Draw Doesn’t Favor Him

Alcaraz’s quarter is far from straightforward. He could face early tests against Stefanos Tsitsipas or Ben Shelton, both dangerous on their day. If he clears that, he may run into Ruud, Khachanov, or Tommy Paul; none are elite on clay, but all are proven battlers capable of pulling off an upset.

By the time he reaches the semis, he could see Taylor Fritz (most likely), Frances Tiafoe, Holger Rune, or Lorenzo Musetti. That’s a gauntlet of dangerous, if inconsistent, talent.

Even if he survives it all, Alcaraz’s French Open odds don’t offer value outright, at +125 odds. Bettors are paying a premium for his hot form and name brand but the risk baked into this draw makes those short odds hard to justify.

Smarter Plays: Draper and Fils

If you’re looking for value, turn your eyes to Alcaraz’s Rome final opponent: Jack Draper. Keep in mind, the Brit is in the same quarter as Jannik Sinner.

While Sinner is the top seed, he has had minimal clay prep this year. Aside from Rome, where he made the final (losing to Alcaraz), Sinner has largely skipped the clay circuit. Historically, #1 seeds have struggled at the French Open, and Sinner’s limited reps may catch up to him.

Draper, meanwhile, was lights out in Madrid, winning every match in straight sets until the final. His draw in Paris features a mix of qualifiers and low seeds, giving him a realistic path to the second week on top of a good potential payout at +3300 odds.

Arthur Fils is another name worth circling. While his clay results haven’t popped this season, he’s battle-tested, having faced the likes of Zverev, Tsitsipas (twice), and Alcaraz (twice). He’s not likely to cash your +5000 odds futures wager at legal sports betting sites, but with a favorable early path, he could be an easy hedge later on.

What About Zverev or Musetti?

Alexander Zverev will attract attention, and rightfully so as his clay pedigree is strong. But he hasn’t faced many top-tier threats this season. Losses to Musetti and Cerundolo and wins over Shelton and Fils don’t inspire confidence. He’s a stay-away at current odds (+1400).

Lorenzo Musetti, on the other hand, is worth consideration at +2500 odds. He’s had a standout clay season, reaching the semifinals in both Rome and Madrid and the finals in Monte Carlo. With a 6–3 record against top-25 opponents on clay, he’s shown he can hang with the best. He may not go all the way (running into Fritz or Alcaraz before the finals), but with long odds and a proven clay resume, Musetti offers sneaky French Open betting value.

French Open Odds 2025 (Top 30 Players)

• Carlos Alcaraz +125
• Jannik Sinner +185
• Novak Djokovic +1200
• Alexander Zverev +1400
• Casper Ruud +2500
• Lorenzo Musetti +2500
• Holger Rune +3300
• Jack Draper +3300
• Stefanos Tsitsipas +4000
• Alex de Minaur +5000
• Arthur Fils +5000
• Daniil Medvedev +5000
• Jakub Mensik +5000
• Andrey Rublev +6600
• Francisco Cerundolo +6600
• Joao Fonseca +6600
• Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +10000
• Hubert Hurkacz +10000
• Matteo Berrettini +10000
• Taylor Fritz +12500
• Felix Auger Aliassime +15000
• Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard +15000
• Grigor Dimitrov +15000
• Karen Khachanov +15000
• Tomas Machac +15000
• Ben Shelton +20000
• Nicolas Jarry +20000
• Tommy Paul +20000
• Ugo Humbert +20000
• Alejandro Tabilo +25000

All odds sourced from Bovada Sportsbook, pulled post draw: 5/22/2025 9:45 a.m. EST

News tags: Alexander Zverev | Arthur Fils | Ben Shelton | Carlos Alcaraz | Casper Ruud | Frances Tiafoe | Francisco Cerundolo | French Open | Holger Rune | Jack Draper | Jannik Sinner | Karen Khachanov | Lorenzo Musetti | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Taylor Fritz | tennis | Tommy Paul