Ons Jabeur - Iga Swiatek

  • Iga Swiatek is the outright French Open favorite, with odds of -120.
  • Ons Jabeur and Simona Halep come next, but at a major drop off: +1200.

PARIS – Betting on the French Open in 2022 has never been easier. There are dozens of states with regulated apps, online sports betting sites in all 50 states, and land-based books popping up weekly. Still, finding the best odds can be a challenge.

Betting on tennis is that challenge, and comes with it one of the hardest tournaments to handicap – the ladies French Open.

Only two players have made the semifinal or further twice since 2017 – Grand Slam Champions Garbine Muguruza and Simona Halep. Otherwise, a fresh pair of faces seem to make the SF every year.

After Thursday’s French Open draw, the 2022 French Open odds are lopsided – Iga Swiatek above the field.

Women’s French Open Betting Odds

  • Iga Swiatek -120
  • Simona Halep +1200
  • Ons Jabeur +1200
  • Paula Badosa +2000
  • Aryna Sabalenka +2200
  • Maria Sakkari +2200
  • Bianca Andreescu +3300
  • Cori Gauff +3300
  • Garbine Muguruza +3300
  • Amanda Anisimova +4000
  • Barbora Krejcikova +4000

Taking the -120 odds on Swiatek may seem pointless, but it would be hard to bet against her. In her career, Swiatek is 25-8 on clay and sporting a perfect 5-0 record in 2022 after winning Rome Masters last week.

In Rome, Swiatek beat three of the six players most favored for the French Open. She did so without dropping a set.

Swiatek Vs. Top Challengers

  • Ons Jabeur: 6-2, 6-2
  • Aryna Sabalenka: 6-1, 6-1
  • Bianca Andreescu: 7-6, 6-0

Beating three of the best 37-12 should have most betting with their head. Still, history may not be supportive of a Swiatek victory at Roland-Garros.

The best seed left in the semifinal has won two of the last six women’s French Opens.

Swiatek (the #1 seed) will have a likely battle against Simona Halep in the 4th Round, otherwise the next challenge could be Elena Rybakina or Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals.

The French Open betting trends go deeper – of the last seven winners, three were unranked.

  • 2021: Barbora Krejcikova
  • 2020: Iga Swiatek
  • 2017: Jelena Ostapenko

Even more so, four of the last seven champions failed to reach the second week in the previous French Open (Swiatek lost in the QF last season).

Year Player Previous Result
2021 Barbora Krejcikova 4R
2020 Iga Swiatek 4R
2019 Ashleigh Barty 2R
2017 Jelena Ostapenko 1R

So Who Is The Play?

Betting Swiatek is still the best option and the clear leader by the numbers. She leads many categories across WTA players in 2022 for her abilities on clay.

  • Only undefeated clay record in 2022
  • Only player on clay with hold % above 80
  • Best at getting points on 2nd serve
  • One of three with return point % above 50
  • Leads WTA in return points on first serve (48.3%)
  • Breaks opponents in 59% of their service games

However, with odds at legal sportsbooks jumping to +1200 for the next in line, it’s hard not to play value or set up a few hedge bets.

Longshots To Win The 2022 French Open

Ons Jabeur 2022 Clay Record: Reason To Win: Reason To Lose:
(+1200) 17-3 Almost never gets aced – allowing a 1.1% rate (4th best) in 20 games. 10th worst at getting her first serve in on clay (57.4%).

 

Paula Badosa 2022 Clay Record: Reason To Win: Reason To Lose:
(+2000) 6-4 Gets into long games – 8th overall (6.9) in points/return game on clay. Can get sloppy serving – 42 double faults (6th worst on clay in WTA).

 

Elena Rybakina 2022 Clay Record: Reason To Win: Reason To Lose:
(+5000) 7-4 Behind only Naomi Osaka and Aryna Sabalenka in ace rate on clay (7.5%). Has a below average hold rate on service games (67.7%).

 

Belinda Bencic 2022 Clay Record: Reason To Win: Reason To Lose:
(+5000) 9-2 Leads the WTA in percentage of service points won (63.6%). Sits 10th in being aced on clay by percentage of serves (4.9%).

News tags: | | | | | |