- DraftKings’ golf analyst Reid Fowler sits down to discuss betting the Masters, the future young stars of the PGA Tour, and how advanced statistics can give bettors the key advantage they need.
AUGUSTA, Ga. – The 2021 Masters Tournament is in full swing, and DraftKings’ lead golf betting analyst Reid Fowler took some time to chat about the current betting board, and the state of the game as a whole heading into the weekend.
Fowler has covered golf for DraftKings since 2017 and has some vital information for anyone looking to bet on the second half of the Masters.
With the tournament currently underway, bettors can find full live odds for the tournament at all of the legal online sportsbooks.
Odds To Win The Masters
- Jordan Spieth +450
- Justin Thomas +550
- Justin Rose +600
- Tony Finau +1200
- Patrick Reed +1400
- Jon Rahm +2000
- Si Woo Kim +2000
- Marc Leishman +2200
- Bryson DeChambeau +2500
- Hideki Matsuyama +2500
- Xander Schauffele +2500
- Cameron Smith +3300
- Collin Morikawa +3300
- Dustin Johnson +3300
- Will Zalatoris +3300
- Brian Harman +3500
- Cameron Champ +5000
- Bernd Wiesberger +6600
- Corey Conners +6600
- Webb Simpson +10000
- Bubba Watson +12500
- Ryan Palmer +12500
- Tommy Fleetwood +12500
- Matthew Fitzpatrick +15000
When it comes to betting on the winner of the Masters, one of the most profitable strategies is to wait until after the first or second round to choose your players. This allows bettors to see how players are looking in the early stages of the tournament, a strategy that Fowler agrees with.
“I think it is extremely valuable, especially at Augusta National because you see these big swings. We saw it with Justin Rose on the front nine who is now back to where he started the day. It allows [bettors] to see what is happening on the leaderboard, and see what guys can do” said Fowler.
Justin Rose entered and exited Friday at 7-under-par, with his odds fluctuating heavily during that period. Rose went down to -4 on the front nine before working his way back to -7 to end the day.
Fowler sees these changes as the best time to bet.
“It helps to see if the front nine is potentially place where you don’t want to attack, or if you want to wait until the back nine. It allows guys to see that there are scores out there to be had as well. When you are looking at your outright bets, between Round 1 and Round 2 is really where you can get a lot of value.”
When it comes to players who experienced major jumps Friday, Fowler mentions Tony Finau (+1000) and Xander Schauffele (+2200) as those with plenty of value. Additionally, Fowler spoke about how casual bettors can be dissuaded away from betting on The Masters if some of the bigger names in the sport are not performing well.
“For the casual bettors, if they see names like Rory McIlory or Dustin Johnson not doing well, they will think ‘Oh well this must be a difficult course, maybe I don’t want to bet on a Marc Leishman or Patrick Reed’, even though these guys are world class players.”
Instead of being turned off of betting altogether, Fowlers recommends looking at players that excel in certain statistical categories.
Ball Striking Metrics like Strokes Gained on Approach can be the secret weapon for golf bettors looking to gain the upper hand.
“If you look at the Strokes Gained on Approach data (SGA), it is the most important data in any tournament. It paints a clearer picture on how close these guys are getting to the hole, what is their average distance to the green, and what the baseline score is [for that hole] that these golfers get. The strokes gained data really gives casual bettors a good idea of who is hitting the ball well or who is missing their puts.”
This data can be found at multiple outlets, but Datagolf.com is the favorite of legal sports betting users.
Young Stars And Familiar Faces
Before the beginning of the Masters, betting flooded in on former champion Jordan Spieth. Spieth is one of the biggest stars in the game, and just recently experienced a strong return to form.
After not winning an event since 2017, Spieth won last week at the Texas Valero Open, resulting in his odds for the Masters to be among the shortest in the field.
“We talk about the casual bettor, and who other than Jordan Spieth is more bet on by these casual bettors? Other than Tiger Woods and Bryson DeChambeau, Spieth is a guy that appeals to a lot of different people. If he is in a golf tournament and is playing well, it is like if the New York Knicks are playing well, or if the Los Angeles Lakers are good. Polarizing teams and players are good for the sport. Sort of a tide that rises all ships.”
Spieth currently sits at 5-under-par with +450 odds to win the tournament, the shortest in the field.
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 9, 2021
The other big name with big money attached to his performance is none other than Bryson DeChambeau. Speaking of Bryson DeChambeau (+2500), some golf purists are not huge fans of the way the 2020 US Open Champion is bombing courses to smithereens.
Few can argue however that Bryson is the new face of modern golf, but is he the right man to lead the pack?
“He definitely is. It’s not just his statistics, but you look at how he is growing the game. You take a look at what he is doing and is similar to the evolution of the mobile quarterback in football, or players playing above the rim in basketball. What Bryson is doing is introducing an entirely new way to play the game, which is trying to hit the snot out of the ball every time I can and try to get to a position on the golf course than no one else has tested previously.”
DeChambeau currently sits 1-under-par after shooting a 67 on Friday.
Outside of the big names, there are a group of young guns that have taken over the PGA Tour in addition to DeChambeau. Names like Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, and Matthew Wolff have been generating the most hype this last year, but Fowler sees a few other names that should be added to that list.
“Scottie Scheffler is someone you always have to keep your eye on, but Sungjae Im needs to be included with the group of Hovland, Morikawa, and Wolff. Sungjae is a guy that at courses where he isn’t supposed to do well says “screw that’.”
Despite a T2 finish at the 2020 Masters, Sungjae Im will not be making the cut this weekend after a score of 13-over par.
Betting Masters Matchups
Fowler sees plenty of value in live betting the Masters matchups heading into the weekend. Each day and even each hole will have their own odds posted for bettors to work with.
“The head to heads are definitely there. Saturday is moving day, and guys will be trying to put up those scores to stay alive. The strokes gained data comes in big here. Seeing the guys who are plus in the strokes gained/ball striking categories who maybe haven’t gaining [strokes] on the green, that is the kind of stuff that can reverse.”
However, when it comes to making the perfect Masters pick, Fowler has his eyes on one specific dark horse.
“I think Xander Schauffele is someone to keep an eye on. What he usually does in tournaments that he has won is come from behind. He is a guy that can get hot at a moment’s notice.”
Reid Fowler can be found across all DraftKings media, as well as on Twitter @reidtfowler, and on The Dream Stream podcast.
News tags: 2021 Masters | Bryson DeChambeau | Collin Morikawa | DraftKings | Dustin Johnson | Golf Betting | Justin Thomas | Masters | PGA Tour | Reid Fowler | The Masters | Webb Simpson | Xander Schauffele
Jimmy began his journalistic journey as a stat recorder and PA announcer for his middle school baseball team. Full of experience across print, broadcast, and sports radio, he brings his knowledge and toolkit to the LegalSportsBetting team. You can find him watching sports, making parlays, and listening to music on any day ending in Y.