- The Chiefs (-145) are 3-point home favorites over the Bills (+125) for their Sunday Night Football matchup.
- The Bills are looking for a win on the road to keep their record at one loss.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The NFL Week 5’s Sunday Night Football matchup features the 3-1 Buffalo Bills visiting Arrowhead Stadium to take on the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs, with kickoff slated for 8:20 PM EST on the NBC Network.
Week 5 Sunday Night Football Betting Odds
- Buffalo +3 (-120)
- Kansas City -3 (EVEN)
- Buffalo (+125)
- Kansas City (-145)
- OVER 56.5 (-110)
- UNDER 56.5 (-110)
The point-spread opened with Kansas City favored by 3.5, but has since been gone down to 3 with online sportsbooks. The total opened at 53.5 points and has now moved to 56.5.
The Bills are in the midst of a solid hot streak, winning and covering the spread in each of their last three games after dropping their opening matchup to the Pittsburgh Steelers. During that stretch, Buffalo’s defense has been the best in the NFL, allowing just 21 points total on the back of two shutouts. The defense has forced more turnovers in the last three games (11) than they have allowed touchdowns (3). They have not yet allowed any opponent to accrue 300 yards in 2021.
On the other hand, Kansas City’s defense has been a definite weak point. The Chiefs have allowed 31.25 points to opponents per game, the second-worst in the NFL. They have been particularly soft against the pass, allowing 250 yards in the air in each of their four games, including allowing over 300 passing yards twice.
Both offenses have been solid, though Kansas City’s has been marginally better. Kansas City has accrued over 400 yards of total offense in each of their last three games, scoring over 30 points in two of those. Buffalo has scored 35 points or more in each of their last three games, though against weaker competition.
Buffalo’s offense has run primarily through QB Josh Allen (10 total touchdowns) and WR Stefon Diggs (26 catches for 305 yards). The running game has featured two running backs, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Singletary has out carried Moss 49-35 to this point, though Moss has received progressively more carries (8, 13, 14) in the last three weeks. He has also been more effective with his opportunities, tallying 4 touchdowns (3 rushing, 1 receiving) to Singletary’s 1.
It appears as though Moss is heading towards taking over lead back duties and that may begin this week. Moss has a total carries prop of 8.5 (-140) this week, which should be a very good value if his involvement remains the same or continues to increase.
Kansas City’s offense has run almost exclusively through QB Patrick Mahomes (he has thrown or rushed for 13 of their 15 offensive touchdowns), with his favorite target still being Tyreek Hill (30 receptions for 453 yards and 4 touchdowns). The running game has not been very good with the Chiefs never eclipsing the 200 yard rushing mark in any of their four games, though Clyde Edwards-Helaire has now rushed for 100 yards or more in two consecutive games. Edwards-Helaire has a rushing yardage prop of 51.5 yards (-115) this week, opening the door for some great value for prop bettors if he can continue that trend.
Covering The Spread
For Kansas City to cover the spread, they will need to dictate the pace of the game and turn it into a shootout. If the Chiefs do win and cover, it is highly likely that the OVER 56.5 hits along with it.
On the other hand, for Buffalo to cover, they will similarly need to control the pace of the game. The Bills will need to slow down the matchup and make the Chiefs play more conservatively than they are used to. The defense is the most important aspect of the Bills chances of winning – if they perform as they have the past three games, it will be very difficult for Mahomes and the Chiefs to get anything going offensively. If the total goes UNDER, it will be a very good thing for the Bills’ chances of covering the spread.
Buffalo has covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 games and have won 11 of their last 13 games outright. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games.
Over on the other side of the field, Kansas City has covered the spread in just 2 of their last 15 games; they have also covered the spread in just 1 of their last 8 home games. Although they have struggled mightily against the spread, they have still managed to win 14 of their last 18 games straight up.
Kansas City has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 matchups between the two teams. Perhaps the more telling trend, however, is that the total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 17 matchups between these two teams – good news for Buffalo Bills sports bettors.
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