- The Ohio State Buckeyes are favored to beat the Penn State Nittany Lions at -400 odds.
- The matchup has a 10.5 point spread in favor of the Buckeyes.
- The Buckeyes are 9-2 against the spread in their previous 11 games following an ATS victory.
- The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 games Ohio State has played against with a losing record.
STATE COLLEGE, Penn. – The primetime game in Week 9 of the college football season features some of the most prominent names in college football and the Big 10. The Ohio State Buckeyes come into Beaver Stadium as significant favorites over the Penn State Nittany Lions.
The Nittany Lions came into the season ranked No. 8 in the country last weekend, but have fallen to No. 18 after an improbable loss to the Indiana Hoosiers that has to be seen to believe.
One of the wildest endings to a game you'll ever see!
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) October 24, 2020
The Ohio State Buckeyes, on the other hand, are coming into the game after having throttled the Nebraska Cornhuskers 52-17.
The Cornhuskers gave those betting on college football a run for their money in the first half, but couldn’t keep up with the dominant play of Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields in the second half.
With momentum clearly on opposite sides of the spectrum here, do the Nittany Lions stand a chance? Betting trends and stats say otherwise.
Ohio State (-10.5) vs. Penn State
The Buckeyes come into this game with a 10.5 point spread in their favor despite the lines starting upwards at -13.5 at certain legal sports betting sites.
This could be a sign that many bettors have been taking the Nittany Lions to at least cover. Penn State is 7-1 ATS as an underdog in their last eight games. They are also 8-1 in their previous nine games following an ATS defeat.
However, Ohio State is 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 matchups where they were the favorite.
These trends somewhat offset each other, but with the line shrinking over the week, now might be the best time to bet on Ohio State to cover the spread.
Ohio State (-400) vs. Penn State (+300)
Ohio State is a significant favorite on the moneyline and rightfully so. The Buckeyes looked in full form in their Big Ten and season opener last weekend against the Cornhuskers.
If Penn State wants to have any shot at pulling the upset here they will have to stop Justin Fields from playing at peak form.
Last week, Fields played an almost perfect game having gone 20/21 for 276 yards, two touchdowns, and zero picks. He also contributed with 54 yards on the ground and a rushing touchdown.
Penn State did rattle Hoosiers Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in their season debut holding him to 19/36, 170 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. If they can repeat a similar performance they may have a chance.
However, they can’t afford to have too many turnovers like they did last week. The key will be keeping their offense on the field. Whether or not they can seems unlikely. Penn State bettors may want to fade this bet and look more towards the spread.
Penn State vs. Ohio State (O/U) 64
The spread for this game is set quite high for a Big 10 matchup between two high profile teams. It seems as though oddsmakers are betting that the Big 10, like every other conference in America, has forgotten how to play defense this season.
Ohio State managed to score 52 points alone in their first game and Penn State was able to haul in 35 points themselves.
When looking at the Buckeyes here, the Over is 4-0 in their last four games against a team under.500. On the opposite side, the Over is 4-0 in the Nittany Lions previous four home games against a team with a winning record.
Even with the high O/U, the Over seems to be the best play of the night.
– In his career, Hasan has worked both local and state government positions—including the Attorney General’s Office in Florida. On top of being familiar with the legislative process, he has also been researching and writing on the legality of sports betting across the US. Outside of work you’ll most likely find him producing or playing music, playing sports, or working on creative writing projects. You’ll also catch him at Doak Campbell Stadium cheering on the Noles.