- Scottie Scheffler opens as the +800 favorite at Bovada, with Rory McIlroy just behind at +900.
- A light easterly is forecast to build through Thursday afternoon, with gusts near 21 mph by early afternoon.
- The early wave should catch the calmer air, handing morning starters a scoring edge on the links.
- Behind the top two the board bunches from +1600 out, which is where most outright value sits.
SOUTHPORT, England – The 154th Open Championship starts Thursday at Royal Birkdale with Scottie Scheffler the +800 favorite at Bovada, yet the opening-round read begins with the wind rather than the board.
The Board
Scheffler at +800 and McIlroy at +900 are the only two golfers priced inside +1500 to lift the Claret Jug, per Bovada’s outright market. From there the field flattens fast, a shape that tells you the market sees a wide-open week on a course that rewards ball-striking and patience over raw length.
| Golfer | To win (Bovada) |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +800 |
| Rory McIlroy | +900 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +1600 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1600 |
| Jon Rahm | +2500 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2500 |
| Chris Gotterup | +2800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2800 |
| Wyndham Clark | +2800 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +3000 |
For a full menu of markets on the week, compare the outright and top-finish prices across sportsbooks before the first group goes off.
What Decides A Birkdale Thursday
A links Thursday is often won and lost on the draw. The Open’s own weather forecast has light easterly winds Thursday morning “picking up in the early afternoon with gusts of 21mph,” under mostly sunny skies with a high near 26 C (about 79 F) and only a 0 to 10 percent chance of rain. That split is the story: golfers off early ride the calmer air, while the afternoon wave fights a stiffening breeze that firms Birkdale’s fairways and puts its run-off areas and pot bunkers back in play.
Birkdale is a genuine championship links, the site of Jordan Spieth’s win at the 146th Open in 2017. It punishes a leaked tee shot and asks for control of trajectory into crosswinds, which is why a benign morning can produce a low number and a windy afternoon can bury a contender before the weekend. Read the tee sheet before you read the leaderboard.
Reading The Board For Value
With Scheffler and McIlroy already bid short, the outright value lives further down. From Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood at +1600 through the +2500 to +3000 tier, the market is pricing a cluster of proven links players close together, and a good side of the draw can be worth more than a name at the top. That is the same read behind this week’s best course fits breakdown, which made the case for looking past the favorite.
The board is the starting point, not the answer. Anyone shopping The Open on Thursday should weigh the wind and the wave assignment as heavily as the price, a discipline that separates a live ticket from a dead one across the majors covered at legal sports betting.
