Justin Thomas US Open

  • Projecting final scores among the top players at the U.S. Open indicates that betting on Will Zalatoris(+2200) could end poorly.
  • Justin Thomas(+1200), Cameron Smith (+2000), and Sam Burns (+2200) project to have the three lowest scores and represent logical pivots off Zalatoris.
  • Previous major winners such as Brooks Koepka(+4000), Dustin Johnson(+4000), and Patrick Reed(+15000) are all among the five worst bets for the U.S. Open as well.

BROOKLINE, Mass. – Jon Rahm’s U.S. Open title defense begins Thursday but comparing his projected finish to other betting favorites suggests that his +1600 odds are among the worst values in the tournament.

Projecting The U.S. Open Betting Favorites Based On The Country Club Layout

The 2022 rendition of the U.S. Open takes place at The Country Club. The Country Club course will consist of four par threes, 12 par fours, and two par fives. Based on the course layout, multiplying each golfer’s average for each type of hole by the number of times they will play each par type was a logical next step when creating projections.

Subtracting each golfer’s odds rank by their projected finish speaks to which golfers are most overvalued. Of the 10 golfers with the shortest odds to win the U.S. Open, the one that really stood out as a poor betting value was Will Zalatoris(+2200).

Worst Values Amongst Betting Favorites At The U.S. Open

Golfer Odds Rank Projected Strokes Projected Finish Odds Rank – Projected Finish
Will Zalatoris (+2200) 6 69.22 29 -23
Rory McIlroy (+1000) 1 68.84 12 -11
Jon Rahm (+1600) 4 68.82 11 -7
Jordan Spieth (+2500) 9 68.9 15 -6
Scottie Scheffler (+1400) 3 68.46 6 -3

Naturally, golfers that are ranked highly are more likely to present negative than worse players because their is not much wiggle room at the top. Even with that in mind, the only golfer whose odds are among the ten shortest to not finish inside the top 15 projected finishers is Will Zalatoris who is projected to finish 29th.

Justin Thomas (+1200) finished with the lowest projected stoke total, with Cameron Smith (+2000) and Sam Burns (+2200) coming in second and third respectively, meaning they all represent significantly better betting values than Zalatoris.

Worst Overall Values At The U.S. Open

Expanding the metric of odds rankings minus projected final rankings produced a list consisting of many of golf’s biggest names. First among them, two-time U.S. Open winner Brooks Koepka who has +4000 odds to win the tournament.

Overall Worst U.S. Open Betting Values

Golfer Odds Rank Projected Strokes Projected Finish Odds Rank – Projected Finish
Brooks Koepka (+4000) 18 69.7 52 -34
Tyrrell Hatton (+10000) 33 70.04 67 -34
Patrick Reed (+15000) 40 70.2 72 -32
Sepp Straka (+15000) 40 70.18 70 -30
Dustin Johnson (+4000) 18 69.58 44 -26

All stats used to project how players will finish were based on this season’s results, which may be why previous major winners such as Koepka (+4000), Dustin Johnson(+4000), and Patrick Reed(+15000) fair so poorly in this exercise even though may do better than projected based on experience.

In a weekend filled with the PGA Tour versus LIV Golf storylines, it may only add to the intrigue that two of the LIV’s biggest names in Dustin Johnson and Patrick are projected to do so poorly.

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