- Minnesota locks up the top seed in the WNBA playoffs with two wins in its final four games.
- Atlanta and Indiana, level at 26-14, are chasing the No. 4 seed and first-round home court.
- New York, Washington and Dallas sit within half a game of each other for the final three seeds.
- Minnesota is the -120 favorite to win the title, with Golden State next at +650.
MINNEAPOLIS – The Minnesota Lynx need just two wins from their final four games to sew up the No. 1 seed, while New York, Washington and Dallas sit within half a game of each other in the race for the No. 6, 7 and 8 seeds.
Back After Three Weeks Away
The league went dark Aug. 31 for the FIBA World Cup in Berlin, which pulled more than 50 WNBA players onto their national teams before wrapping Sept. 13. All eight postseason berths were settled before the pause, and each qualifier still had four regular-season dates on its schedule; only Las Vegas, Washington and Dallas played Thursday, trimming those three to three games left while Minnesota, Golden State, Atlanta, Indiana and New York still have four.
Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu, whose team sent seven players to the World Cup, told the Associated Press after play resumed Thursday that “we can’t use these next four games as an opportunity for excuses.” New York currently holds the lowest of the three contested seeds.
Minnesota Controls Its Own Tiebreaker
Minnesota went into the pause up two games on Golden State, and beating the Valkyries in three of their four meetings this season gives the Lynx the tiebreaker on top of it. That means Golden State has to finish ahead of Minnesota outright, not merely pull even, to take the top seed, a taller order than the two-game gap alone suggests.
Minnesota closed its pre-break schedule with consecutive losses and has been idle since, so that cushion has sat untouched since late August. Two of Minnesota’s remaining four are against Indiana (Sept. 22 in Indianapolis, Sept. 24 in Minneapolis), meaning the league’s top seed could effectively be settled against a team still fighting for the No. 4 spot.
Forward Napheesa Collier, who tops Bovada’s Finals MVP board at +270, played through the World Cup break rather than resting, saying the extra minutes helped rather than hurt her conditioning for the stretch run.
The Fight For Fourth
Atlanta and Indiana carry identical 26-14 records into the scrap for the No. 4 seed, the last spot that hosts Games 1 and 3 of a first-round series under a WNBA bracket that never re-seeds, with 1 playing 8, 2 playing 7, 3 playing 6, and 4 playing 5. Neither team played Thursday, and the Dream currently hold the tiebreaker over the Fever.
Whichever finishes fourth hosts the decisive games of that series against the fifth-place team, a real edge in a best-of-three, not just a number on a bracket.
Las Vegas, at 28-13, sits between the top two and the Atlanta-Indiana pair after routing Seattle 114-77 Thursday, a game in which Jackie Young tied the WNBA record for points in a quarter with 22 in the first on her way to a career-high 35.
Bottom Three Seeds Separated By Half A Game
New York (24-16), Washington (25-16) and Dallas (25-16) are fighting for the No. 6, 7 and 8 seeds. Washington and Dallas each won Thursday (the Mystics routing Chicago 110-80, the Wings beating Los Angeles 97-77) while the Liberty were off. The gap carries real playoff weight: as the standings sit, the No. 8 seed opens on the road against top-seeded Minnesota, the No. 7 seed draws Golden State, and the No. 6 seed draws Las Vegas.
The WNBA Championship Board
Bovada’s futures board still makes Minnesota the team to beat, a price that has shortened since Collier’s return from injury made the Lynx WNBA title favorites back in July.
| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Lynx | 31-9 | -120 |
| Golden State Valkyries | 29-11 | +650 |
| Las Vegas Aces | 28-13 | +700 |
| Atlanta Dream | 26-14 | +800 |
| Indiana Fever | 26-14 | +900 |
| New York Liberty | 24-16 | +1600 |
| Washington Mystics | 25-16 | +7500 |
| Dallas Wings | 25-16 | +7500 |
Laying 120 to win 100 on Minnesota is a short price for a team that hasn’t played in three weeks, but the season-series tiebreaker means the Lynx don’t need to outplay Golden State down the stretch, only avoid losing the standings tie outright. Golden State’s remaining schedule (four games against teams already eliminated from playoff position) is the better argument for the Valkyries closing the loss-column gap even if that tiebreaker stays put.
Further down the board, a Wings or Mystics ticket at +7500 lives or dies on which bracket slot the team lands in, more than on anything else the online sports betting markets are pricing this week. The last WNBA betting card of the regular season lands Sept. 24, and three days later, on Sept. 27, the top seed hosts the No. 8 seed to open the playoffs.
