- Only one of Wednesday’s six WNBA games is close, with Phoenix +105 at the Sparks -125.
- Bovada’s margin runs about 4.6% on the three blowout-priced games and 3.8% on Aces-Mystics.
- Five of six totals sit between 173 and 179.5, with Aces-Mystics the outlier at 162.5.
- Minnesota is the +135 title favorite, and Bovada holds about 13.9% on the championship board.
LOS ANGELES – Only one game on the WNBA’s six-game Wednesday slate is priced anywhere near a coin flip, with the Los Angeles Sparks -125 at home and the Phoenix Mercury +105 on Bovada’s board as of 10 a.m. ET Tuesday, July 21.
Phoenix At Los Angeles Is The Only Near-Even Price
Bovada has the Sparks laying 1.5 points at -110 and the Mercury taking 1.5 at -110, a spread that says the book cannot separate these teams by more than one possession. The moneyline says the same thing in a different currency. Los Angeles at -125 pays $100 on a $125 risk, a price that implies about 55.6%. Phoenix at +105 pays $105 on $100, implying roughly 48.8%.
Those are payouts, not forecasts. The implied number is what the price assumes, and whether either team’s real chance beats it is the entire bet. A standard -110 side has to win 52.38% of the time just to break even, so a bettor taking the Mercury at +105 buys a slightly lower bar than that house number and a bettor laying -125 buys a higher one.
The two prices together add to 104.3% of implied probability, so about 4 cents of every dollar wagered on that game is Bovada’s margin.
WNBA Odds Today
Minnesota at Seattle, 3 p.m.
- Spread: Lynx -9.5
- Moneyline -440 / +330
- Total: 177 Points
Phoenix at Los Angeles, 3 p.m.
- Spread: Sparks -1.5
- Moneyline +105 / -125
- Total: 178.5 Points
Chicago at New York, 7 p.m.
- Spread: Liberty -9.5
- Moneyline: +340 / -460
- Total: 179.5 Points
Las Vegas at Washington, 7:30 p.m.
- Spread: Aces -7
- Moneyline: -280 / +230
- Total: 162 Points
Connecticut at Indiana, 8 p.m.
- Spread: Fever -10 (-110)
- Moneyline +370 / -510
- Total: 177 Points
Dallas at Portland, 10 p.m.
- Spread: Wings -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: -225 / +185
- Total: 173 Points
All totals are priced -110 to either side at Bovada as of Tuesday morning. Reading the whole board instead of one game is the cheapest edge in legal sports betting, because these prices only mean something next to each other.
The Three Blowout Games Cost The Most To Bet
Indiana -510 against Connecticut is the steepest number on the slate. Laying it risks $510 to win $100, and paired with the Sun’s +370 the market prices out at 104.9% of implied probability. Chicago at New York is level with it at 104.9% behind the Liberty -460 and the Sky +340, and Minnesota at Seattle sits just under at 104.7% with the Lynx -440 and the Storm +330.
Las Vegas at Washington is the cleanest market on the board at 104.0%, and that is where the tidy version of this story stops. The Aces are a shorter favorite than Dallas at -225, yet their game is charged less than the Wings’ 104.3% and less than the near-even Sparks market, which prices out at the same 104.3%.
The three biggest mismatches do cost the most to bet, but Bovada is not setting its margin by the size of the gap. A bettor pricing a parlay leg has to read each market rather than assume the blowout is the expensive one.
Totals Cluster At 177, And Washington Is The Exception
Strip out the Aces game and the other five totals average exactly 177, ranging from 173 in Portland to 179.5 in New York. Las Vegas at Washington is posted at 162.5, which sits 14.5 points below that group and is the only number under 170.
That gap changes how the same spread should read. Fewer expected possessions means fewer chances for a trailing team to close, so seven points travels further in a game the book expects at 162.5 than in one it expects at 179.5. The Mystics at +230 are the largest dog payout outside the three mismatches, and it comes in the game with the least room for the comeback that price is paying for.
Outside Los Angeles, Dallas at -225 laying 5.5 in Portland is the cheapest favorite on the board, with the Fire +185. That number and the Aces’ -280 are the two spots where the spread and the moneyline sit close enough to shop against each other rather than take as given. Both reward a bettor who can convert a spread into a moneyline, the first arithmetic WNBA betting asks anyone to learn.
The Title Board Only Moves On An Upset
Minnesota is +135 to win the championship at Bovada as of Tuesday morning, ahead of Las Vegas at +360 and New York at +400. The board has been open since the 2026 WNBA futures odds went up ahead of the May 8 tipoff. Golden State is +850, Atlanta +1100, and Dallas and Indiana are both +1800.
Those top three prices alone account for 84.3 points of implied probability on a 15-team board that sums to 116.1, so Bovada holds roughly 13.9% on the futures market. That is about three times its margin on a single-game side, and the standing argument for pricing a title opinion through games rather than a season-long ticket.
Five of the seven shortest championship prices play Wednesday, and every one of them is favored. Golden State and Atlanta are idle, so the board’s middle gains ground only if a favorite loses. The four longest prices on the futures board are +50000, and three of those teams, Chicago, Connecticut and Seattle, are Wednesday’s three biggest underdogs at +340, +370 and +330.
