- Betting projections show Courtland Sutton is a valuable choice compared to other receivers in his draft range.
- Sutton is favored to go over 6.5 receiving touchdowns and projects for 799.5 yards for the season, higher than other receivers drafted earlier than him.
- Average Draft Position (ADP) and consensus rankings based on 1 QB PPR leagues.
DENVER – Utilizing betting projections for a player’s touchdowns and yards is a great way to find hidden gems in fantasy football drafts. Courtland Sutton stands out as a mid-sixth-round pick that has the same odds to score 7+ receiving touchdowns as Justin Jefferson and George Pickens.
Sutton is the WR29 on ESPN, WR36 on Sleeper and the consensus WR36 across all fantasy platforms, behind or in the same range (depending on platform) as guys like DK Metcalf, Marvin Harrison Jr., and rookies Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson. Betting odds show that Courtland Sutton is a valuable pick in this range based on his projections at NFL betting sites for receiving yards and touchdowns.
| Player (Consensus WR Ranking) | SZN Receiving TDs Projection | Over/Under | SZN Receiving Yards Projection | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf (WR 31) | 5.5 Touchdowns | Over -105, Under -125 | 824.5 Yards | Over -115, Under -115 |
| Carnell Tate (WR 32) | 4.5 Touchdowns | Over +110, Under -145 | 775.5 Yards | Over -115, Under -115 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR 33) | 5.5 Touchdowns | Over +120, Under -160 | 824.5 Yards | Over -115, Under -115 |
| Jordyn Tyson (WR 34) | 4.5 Touchdowns | Over +120, Under -150 | 750.5 Yards | Over -115, Under -115 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. (WR 35) | 4.5 Touchdowns | Over +110, Under -140 | 750.5 Yards | Over -115, Under -115 |
| Courtland Sutton (WR 36) | 6.5 Touchdowns | Over -130, Under +100 | 799.5 Yards | Over -115, Under -115 |
Of that cluster of receivers between consensus rank 31 (DK Metcalf) and consensus rank 36 (Courtland Sutton), Sutton stands out as a value pick with the highest touchdown projection (6.5 TDs) and third-highest receiving yard projection. However, Sutton is going more than a round later than players like Carnell Tate.
Offensive Point Projections Also Help Gauge Fantasy Value
Hype on rookies like Tate or Tyson isn’t surprising, but there’s no reason why Sutton should be getting drafted after Michael Pittman Jr. There are -140 odds favoring Pittman Jr. to go under 4.5 touchdowns in a worse offense than Sutton, who has -130 odds to go over 6.5 receiving touchdowns.
Another way to assess fantasy wide receiver value with legal sports betting projections is by using offense point projections. Sutton’s Denver Broncos project for 22.3 points per game, far ahead of Carnell Tate’s Titans (20.6 ppg) and Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Cardinals (18.4 ppg) offenses.
| Team | Projected Points Per Game |
|---|---|
| 1. Rams | 26.6 |
| 2. Bills | 26.1 |
| 3. Lions | 26.1 |
| 4. Bengals | 26.0 |
| 5. Ravens | 25.9 |
| 6. Cowboys | 25.7 |
| 7. 49ers | 25.0 |
| 8. Packers | 24.8 |
| 9. Seahawks | 24.8 |
| 10. Bears | 24.6 |
| 11. Chiefs | 24.1 |
| 12. Eagles | 23.8 |
| 13. Patriots | 23.8 |
| 14. Chargers | 23.7 |
| 15. Jaguars | 23.5 |
| 16. Commanders | 23.5 |
| 17. Colts | 23.4 |
| 18. Buccaneers | 23.3 |
| 19. Texans | 22.5 |
| 20. Vikings | 22.4 |
| 21. Broncos | 22.3 |
| 22. Giants | 22.1 |
| 23. Saints | 21.5 |
| 24. Steelers | 21.4 |
| 25. Falcons | 21.2 |
| 26. Panthers | 20.8 |
| 27. Titans | 20.6 |
| 28. Raiders | 19.2 |
| 29. Dolphins | 19.0 |
| 30. Browns | 18.7 |
| 31. Jets | 18.5 |
| 32. Cardinals | 18.4 |
Sportsbooks project for the Broncos to score 22.3 points per game, putting them at 21st but plenty of presence to support Sutton and new arrival Jaylen Waddle. Sutton’s had 7+ touchdowns in three-straight seasons and went over the 1,000-yard mark in back-to-back seasons.
