- Bovada has posted odds on governor races ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms.
- Georgia is the tightest race on the board, while Alabama and California have the biggest favorites.
- Recent polls in Florida, Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin show single-digit races.
WASHINGTON – With six days until the Nov. 3 midterms, Bovada has odds posted on the country’s governor races, and only one of them is priced close to a coin flip.
State-licensed apps that offer legal sports betting don’t take election bets, so political lines come from offshore books like Bovada and from prediction markets. A favorite at -1600 means a $1,600 bet to win $100, while an underdog at +700 pays $700 on a $100 bet.
Alabama Governor Race
Republican Tommy Tuberville sits at -1600, an implied 94% chance, with Democrat Doug Jones at +700.
The Alabama Poll, taken Oct. 15-18, had Tuberville at 51% and Jones at 39%, with independent Ronald Burnette Jr. at 4%. It’s a rematch of the 2020 Senate race Tuberville won by about 20 points, and in a state that still has no Alabama sports betting, Jones has made a state lottery part of his campaign.
California Governor Race
Democrat Xavier Becerra is the biggest favorite on the board at -2500, an implied 96% chance, with Republican Steve Hilton at +750.
An Emerson College poll released Oct. 21 had Becerra ahead 60% to 33%, and SurveyUSA had him up 54% to 32% on Monday. A Republican hasn’t won the governor’s office in California since 2006, showing a clear favorite if California sports betting here.
Florida Governor Race
Republican Byron Donalds sits at -430, an implied 81% chance, with Democrat David Jolly at +290.
The polls are split. Stetson University had Donalds up 52% to 41% in early October, Mason-Dixon had him ahead 48% to 41%, and Change Research found a 47% to 47% tie. The winner takes over a state where Florida sports betting runs through the Seminole Tribe’s Hard Rock Bet.
Georgia Governor Race
This is the closest race on the board. Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is -180, an implied 64% chance, and Republican Rick Jackson is +135.
The AJC/UGA poll had Jackson at 46% and Bottoms at 45% among likely voters, while a State Navigate poll released Wednesday had Bottoms up 50% to 47%. Jackson has outspent Bottoms by a wide margin, and early voters have leaned toward Bottoms. Every attempt to legalize Georgia sports betting has come up short, including a House bill in March.
Ohio Governor Race
Democrat Amy Acton is -550, an implied 85% chance, with Republican Vivek Ramaswamy at +350.
A Marist poll released Oct. 20 had Acton ahead 50% to 43% among likely voters, though a co/efficient survey had Ramaswamy up 45% to 43%. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on Oct. 22. The next governor will oversee Ohio sports betting, which has been legal since January 2023.
Texas Governor Race
Republican Greg Abbott is -240, an implied 71% chance at a fourth term, with Democrat Gina Hinojosa at +175.
The University of Houston’s Hobby School poll from Oct. 10-14 had Abbott ahead 49% to 46%, and a New York Times poll earlier in the month had Hinojosa up 49% to 46%. Early voting ends Friday. Texas sports betting is still not legal, with no licensed retail or online books in the state.
Wisconsin Governor Race
Democrat David Crowley is -465, an implied 82% chance, with Republican Tom Tiffany at +315.
The Marquette Law School poll had Crowley at 49% and Tiffany at 46% with likely voters, inside the margin of error, and a YouGov survey had him up 46% to 42%. The seat is open after Gov. Tony Evers chose not to run again. Evers signed the law legalizing online Wisconsin sports betting in April, but apps can’t launch until each tribe works out a new compact with the state.
