You can bet on the margin of victory for the 2020 Elections

  • Bettors can now wager on the final margin of victory in the electoral college for the 2020 presidential election.
  • COVID-19 has made this election difficult to predict, but correctly picking the margin of victory could be massively profitable.
  • Although the Republican Party is still the favorite to win the general election, Democratic odds are shorter in the electoral college, suggesting an inefficiency.
  • Recent historical trends favor either a close Republican victory or a large Democratic victory.

WASHINGTON – With the 2020 Presidential election field finally coming into focus after the emergence of Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee, sportsbooks have begun taking bets on what the final margin of victory will be in the electoral college in November.

Although this election looks to be more unpredictable than most, correctly picking this margin would net a massive payout, which might warrant the risk.

The current political betting odds on the electoral college margin of victory, per Bovada are:

Margin Of Victory Odds

  • Republican by more than 280 +4500
  • Republican 210-279 +4500
  • Republican 150-209 +3000
  • Republican 100-149 +1200
  • Republican 60-99 +900
  • Republican 30-59 +900
  • Republican 10-29 +1100
  • Republican 0-9 +1400
  • Democratic 1-9 +1400
  • Democratic 10-29 +900
  • Democratic 30-59 +800
  • Democratic 60-99 +800
  • Democratic 100-149 +1100
  • Democratic 150-209 +1000
  • Democratic 210-279 +1000
  • Democratic by more than 280 +1800

Although President Donald Trump is still favored to win his reelection campaign, the Democratic odds are shorter for every value above, suggesting that there are some inefficiencies for smart bettors to profit off of.

Best Bets On 2020 Electoral College Margin

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has left the country in a state of considerable sociopolitical and economic flux, so it can be difficult to predict which way the political winds are blowing.

The Republican candidate, likely President Trump, is a slight favorite in general election betting odds, meaning that there could be net value in betting on the Republican candidate to win in a close result.

In 2016, Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 74 electoral votes, and a win against Biden could look very similar. A Republican victory will likely hinge on key swing states like Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio—Trump is currently a slight favorite to win all three.

Trump also has a massive edge in campaign funding — nearly $200 million more than Joe Biden. That money could prove crucial in securing votes in those swing states.

Alternatively, there could be value in picking a large Democratic victory. The chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented, and the United States is on the brink of its worst economic crisis in over 90 years.

Even in normal times, the Democrats have a decided advantage in the popular vote, and these are far from normal times.

President Trump’s approval rating has not exceeded 46% for the duration of his first term, and he is a heavy underdog to win the popular vote in 2020. If the situation throughout the country continues to worsen, it could engender a wave of support for Biden (or whoever ends up with the nomination).

The last four Democrats to win the presidential election (Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, Bill Clinton in 1996 and 1992) have done so in blowout fashion. The average electoral margin of victory during those four elections was 185 votes.

The three Republican victories (2016, 2004, 2000) over that same time frame have been comparatively small, averaging an electoral margin of victory of 38 votes. Odds for both of those types of victories to happen this year come with a hefty payout…for now.

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