SAN FRANCISCO – After three dominant wins against the Denver Nuggets, the Golden State Warriors are the new betting favorite to win the NBA Championship.
Coming into the playoffs there were eight teams with +1400 odds or shorter to win the playoffs, there are now seven and they all have +1000 odds or shorter.
NBA Finals Champion Odds
- Golden State Warriors +240
- Boston Celtics +475
- Phoenix Suns +600
- Miami Heat +650
- Memphis Grizzlies +850
- Milwaukee Bucks +1000
- Philadelphia 76ers +1000
Golden State’s First Round Dominance
NBA bettors remember the Golden State Warrior’s formula from their era of dominance: star point guard, incredible shooting from Klay Thompson, All-Star small forward, point forward/defensive anchoring from Draymond Green, and solid play from their rotational big men.
Comparing the 2019 Warrior’s starting lineup (the last year they made it to the NBA Finals) to the Warrior’s starting lineup this postseason and it is easy to see why the Warriors are now the NBA Finals Favorites.
|Position||2022 Warriors Starting Lineup||Playoff PPG||2019 Warriors Starting Lineup||Playoff PPG|
|PG||Jordan Poole||28.7||Stephen Curry||28.2|
|SG||Klay Thompson||22||Klay Thompson||20.7|
|SF||Andrew Wiggins||12.7||Kevin Durant||32.3|
|PF||Draymond Green||8||Draymond Green||13.3|
|C||Kevon Looney||2||DeMarcus Cousins||7.6|
The 2022 Warriors may be overmatched when comparing Andrew Wiggins to Kevin Durant, but a look at the 2019 Golden State Warriors roster shows their weakness.
Kevon Looney was their highest-scoring player to come off the bench in more than half his games, and he only averaged 7.1 points per game that postseason.
In 2022 the Warriors happen to have Stephen Curry coming off the bench. While it is probably safe to say he will be implemented back into the starting lineup when he is fully healthy, Curry is still averaging 25.7 points per game so far in the postseason.
Any team that can compare to, and not get laughed at, the legendary Warriors teams from 2015-2019 that completely eviscerated the entire NBA has earned the right to become the newest favorite to win the NBA Finals.
Injuries And Poor Play From Other Contenders Boosting Golden State’s Championship Odds
Coming into the playoffs the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks were the front-runners to win the NBA Championship according to legal online sportsbooks.
Injuries to Devin Booker and Khris Middleton have contributed to the lengthening of their odds, but so has overall poor play.
Both the Bucks against the Chicago Bulls and the Phoenix Suns against the New Orleans Pelicans came into their series’ as heavy favorites, but both series are now tied 1-1.
The Bulls and Pelicans both have home-court advantage and are playing against teams that have lost an All-Star due to injury. Comparing NBA Championship odds before the Play-In Tournament to what they are now indicates how important both of those factors are.
|Team||Championship Odds Before Play-In Tournament||Current Championship Odds|
|New Orleans Pelicans||50000||15000|
While the Bucks are still favored to win their series against the Bulls, their struggles are not the only reason their odds to win the NBA Championship have gotten worse. They can thank their likely second-round opponent the Boston Celtics for that.
The Boston Celtics had the best net rating (12.7) in the league by over 4.6 points per 100 possessions since January 1st. For perspective, the second-best rating belonged to the Phoenix Suns, who were closer to the ninth-highest-rated team in the league over that period.
Boston was historically dominant since the start of January, but their first-round matchup against the Brooklyn Nets seemed to be a tough draw.
The Celtics now lead the Brooklyn Nets 2-0 and have looked much better than the Bucks this postseason.
Injuries and poor play have caused the Suns and Bucks championship odds to worsen, but the Celtic’s dominance is the key contributor to the Milwaukee Bucks’ fall from second shortest championship odds to sixth.
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Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.