- Road underdogs should be bet on, as no fans for Week 1 will move the lines closer to a pick ‘em.
- Bettors looking to bet on home underdogs within a field goal should wait closer until the season.
- Favorites of a touchdown or more will likely not see much line movement.
LAS VEGAS – With Week 1 NFL betting lines out and news that the NFL may not allow fans to begin the season, determining who to bet on can be difficult.
Not having fans during Week 1 is a strong favorite (-400) at online sportsbooks, so NFL line adjustments are expected to occur if this becomes official.
Only a few of the lines will see serious impacts, as the heavy favorites and heavy underdogs won’t see too much of a major change. Still, between the NFL games that are monster favorites or the games that are almost pick ‘ems, expect to see some different lines in August.
Teams That Are A Touchdown Favorite
Four teams in Week 1 of the NFL season are more than a touchdown favorite at home.
The Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5 vs. Houston Texans), Baltimore Ravens (-8.5 vs. Cleveland Browns), San Francisco 49ers (-7.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals), and New England Patriots (-6.5 vs. Miami Dolphins) may see a hefty turn in their line.
While three of the teams have some of the best odds to win the Super Bowl, the Patriots will more than likely see the biggest line change.
“When we made our Week 1 lines, we did it like normal,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill’s director of trading. “But once they announce there’s not gonna be fans, I’m sure those bigger favorites will be adjusted down a point or so.”
However, even when moving these lines a few points, they still remain more than field goal favorite.
The real challenge for NFL bettors will come in the closer matchups.
Week 1 NFL Spreads Within A Field Goal
Only three teams in the NFL during Week 1 are home favorites of a field goal or less. Additionally, another three teams are home underdogs of a field goal or less.
When it comes to NFL betting, the mindset behind online betting sites is to give NFL home teams a 3-point advantage simply for playing at home.
Whether playing on a familiar field or it being the fans is uncertain but the lines for these six games will see the most changes for NFL bettors. The teams that were once underdogs on the road may become favorites or see their matchups become pick ‘ems.
If fans are not to be in attendance, bettors should be quick to hop on the Green Bay Packers (+3 vs. Minnesota Vikings), Tennessee Titans (+2.5 vs. Denver Broncos), and Chicago Bears (+1.5 vs. Detroit Lions).
As the line is likely to adjust closer to even, this will be the largest underdog status the teams will be given (assuming no fans play). Those looking to bet on the home teams should wait until the lines are adjusted.
With this, a 3-point favorite in the Vikings might become a point and half giving bettors more leeway in their wager.
On the opposite side of the spreads, the home underdogs within a field goal may not have the support of the fans behind them. This means bettors should also be ready to take a chance on road favorites.
Without the fans, the road favorites will likely see their spread increase since they are playing on a “neutral” field.
“It cuts [home teams’] power ratings generally in half,” said Johnny Avello, Draftkings‘ operations director.
The Las Vegas Raiders (-1 vs. Carolina Panthers), Seattle Seahawks (-1.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons), and Dallas Cowboys (-2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams) all are bets that should be hopped on immediately.
The home underdogs may see a larger moneyline and bigger spread closer to Week 1, so those looking to support the home team should wait.
Just remember it’s never too early to bet on the NFL season at legal sports betting sites.
News tags: Baltimore Ravens | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | DraftKings | Green Bay Packers | Johhny Avello | Kansas City Chiefs | Las Vegas Raiders | New England Patriots | Nick Bogdanovich | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | Tennessee Titans
Michael began writing as an NBA content writer and has spent time scouting college basketball for Florida State University under Leonard Hamilton and the University of Alabama under Anthony Grant. A graduate of both schools, he covers topics focused on legal sports betting, betting odds, and casino reviews. Michael likes to golf, play basketball, hike, and kayak when not glued to the TV watching NBA games.