- Bovada is now offering prop bets on the exact order of the first three players selected in the NFL draft, as well as the first three running backs and first three receivers selected.
- Bets on the exact order of something as unpredictable as the NFL Draft are risky, but potentially very rewarding as displayed by the long odds.
- The likeliest first three picks, per betting odds, are Joe Burrow, Chase Young, and Jeffrey Okudah.
- There is little separation between the top receivers and running backs in this draft class.
NEW YORK – With few other sporting events to bet on, the NFL Draft is set to be the most-wagered on sporting event in months.
Some sportsbooks have begun to capitalize by offering prop betting odds on the exact order of draftees for both the first three overall picks and within specific position groups.
Predictably, the offensive skill positions have received more betting attention than less attractive position groups like the offensive and defensive lines. Here are a few current NFL Draft betting lines, per Bovada:
Exact Outcome Of First 3 Overall Picks
- 1. Joe Burrow 2. Chase Young 3. Jeffrey Okudah -135
- 1. Joe Burrow 2. Chase Young 3. Tua Tagovailoa +275
- 1. Joe Burrow 2. Chase Young 3. Isaiah Simmons +1100
- 1. Joe Burrow 2. Tua Tagovailoa 3. Chase Young +1800
- 1. Joe Burrow 2. Tua Tagovailoa 3. Justin Herbert +7000
Exact Order of First 3 Running Backs Drafted
- 1. D’Andre Swift 2. Jonathan Taylor 3. J. K. Dobbins +200
- 1. D’Andre Swift 2. J. K. Dobbins 3. Jonathan Taylor +500
- 1. D’Andre Swift 2. Jonathan Taylor 3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire +650
- 1. Jonathan Taylor 2. D’Andre Swift 3. J. K. Dobbins +650
- 1. D’Andre Swift 2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire 3. Jonathan Taylor +700
Exact Order Of First 3 Wide Receivers Drafted
- 1. CeeDee Lamb 2. Jerry Jeudy 3. Henry Ruggs +210
- 1. Jerry Jeudy 2. CeeDee Lamb 3. Henry Ruggs +210
- 1. CeeDee Lamb 2. Henry Ruggs 3. Jerry Jeudy +600
- 1. Jerry Jeudy 2. Henry Ruggs 3. CeeDee Lamb +650
- 1. Henry Ruggs 2. CeeDee Lamb 3. Jerry Jeudy +800
Best Bets On The Order Of The First Three Picks
It is tempting for bettors to immediately look to the betting odds on the first three overall picks and think that it is easy money. After all, scouts, pundits, and casual fans all seem to be in unanimous agreement over the first two overall picks.
LSU Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow is the overwhelming favorite to go first overall by the Cincinnati Bengals, while Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Chase Young will almost certainly be selected second by the Washington Redskins.
The third pick is trickier to predict. The Detroit Lions hold the third overall pick for now, but teams in need of a quarterback could look to trade up and draft either the Alabama Crimson Tide’s Tua Tagovailoa or the Oregon’s Ducks Justin Herbert.
Alternatively, the Lions could hold onto the pick and select a defensive standout like Clemson safety/linebacker Isaiah Simmons or Ohio State cornerback Jeffrey Okudah—the prospect with the shortest odds to be selected third.
Tagovailoa has the second shortest odds to be selected at that third overall slot, but he is coming off a gruesome hip injury that derailed his junior season. NFL teams have not been able to medically examine him because of the Coronavirus, so even a QB-needy team might hesitate to trade up for him.
Okudah and Simmons could offer the best value. The Lions are in desperate need of a standout defensive anchor, and both players fit that bill with no lingering medical concerns.
NFL writer Ian Rapoport also reported on Wednesday that the Miami Dolphins might look to trade up to number three to draft an offensive tackle. Many analysts believe that there are four potentially elite offensive tackles in this draft.
Sources: The #Dolphins have called the teams in front of them for a possible trade up from No. 5 and are gauging the price to come up to No. 3 to potentially take an offensive tackle. We could see a run on tackles in the Top 10 like never before.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 22, 2020
Predicting The Draft Is Difficult, But Rewarding
Pundits and media analysts spend the entire year speculating and studying to predict the results of the NFL Draft, and without fail, their predictions are wildly off-target every year. This isn’t an indictment of those analysts’ abilities, but a product of an immensely secretive draft culture within the NFL.
The league is the most valuable sports business in the entire world, and even small competitive advantages are worth millions of dollars. The NFL Draft is the primary way for teams to add young, cheap talent to their rosters, and it is nigh impossible to build championship rosters without drafting well.
Because of this, the lead-up to the draft is usually whirlwind of feints and misinformation as teams attempt to maximize their odds of landing a coveted prospect. This year’s draft is no different.
All this uncertainty is a double-edged sword for bettors — it means longer odds and greater rewards, but it also means that correctly predicting results is all the more difficult.
News tags: Bovada | CeeDee Lamb | Chase Young | Clemson Tigers | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | Coronavirus | COVID-19 | D'Andre Swift | Henry Ruggs | Ian Rapoport | Isaiah Simmons | Jeffrey Okudah | Jerry Jeudy | Joe Burrow | Jonathan Taylor | Justin Herbert | LSU Tigers | Miami Dolphins | NFL | NFL Draft | Ohio State Buckeyes | Oregon Ducks | Tua Tagovailoa | Washington Redskins
With a dual background in English and sports performance and business analytics, Carter aims to write stories that both engage and inform the reader. He prides himself on his ability to interweave empirical data and traditional narrative storytelling. When he isn’t keeping readers up to date on the latest sports betting legal news, he’s banging his head against a wall regretting his decision to be a Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan.