Super Bowl LVI will feature two outstanding quarterbacks in Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow. Which one has the edge, according to the betting odds?

  • Matthew Stafford, the quarterback for the favored Los Angeles Rams, has a total passing yardage over/under that currently sits at 284.5 yards (O-115, U-115)
  • Similarly, Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow has a total passing yardage over/under of 276.5 yards, just behind Stafford.

LAS VEGAS – Super Bowl LVI is just days away and one of the biggest questions facing bettors is which quarterback – Matthew Stafford or Joe Burrow – will have the better “Big Game”? While these two-star quarterbacks are quite close in skill, sportsbooks’ prop betting odds can give bettors an idea of which quarterback bookmakers expect to have a bigger game.

Stafford And Burrow Props Neck-And-Neck

Looking at MyBookie’s Super Bowl betting odds for the two quarterbacks, it becomes apparent just how close these two signal-callers are production-wise.

The two quarterbacks’ total passing yards over/under are less than ten yards apart, with Stafford sitting at 284.5 yards (O -115, U -115) and Burrow at 276.5 yards (O -115, U -115).

They even have identical total completion over/under’s at 24.5 (O -115, U -115 for both).

MyBookie is currently offering a special prop for which quarterback will have the most passing yards. Stafford holds (-120) odds while Burrow closely trails him at (-110).

Passing Touchdown Odds Differences Provide Insight

Currently, Stafford’s passing touchdown over/under sits at 2.5 (O +165, U -240) while Burrow’s over/under sits at 1.5 (O -170, U +130).

Oddsmakers are implicitly expecting both quarterbacks to throw two touchdowns. Bettors will be rewarded with a solid (+165) payout if Stafford can manage three passing touchdowns, while it would take a one-touchdown performance from Burrow to cash his (+130) under odds.

Looking at the favored outcomes (Stafford U 2.5 passing touchdowns at -240 and Burrow O 1.5 passing touchdowns at -170) this projection becomes apparent.

According to these odds, it seems oddsmakers find it similarly likely that the quarterbacks throw two touchdowns, and more likely that Burrow goes off for a huge day (compared to Stafford).

Hence the sportsbook’s insulation against risk by offering the (-170) odds for Burrow to throw more than one touchdown.

Skill Position Differences Could Lead To Differences In QB Production

Part of the difference in the touchdown odds could also be attributed to the two teams’ respective running games.

Cincinnati has one of the top running backs in the NFL in Joe Mixon, who is fresh off his third 1,000 rushing yard season in the past five years, adding 13 rushing touchdowns.

Mixon currently holds (-111) odds to score a touchdown according to Bovada, meaning oddsmakers expect him to find the end zone at least once in Super Bowl LVI.

The Rams have a considerable running game of their own, led by Cam Akers. Akers only recently got healthy, however, and is just finding his stride. On the other hand, Mixon was active in each of his team’s games this year.

Stafford’s connection with star pass-catcher Cooper Kupp also likely factors into Stafford’s slightly-higher passing touchdown over/under.

Kupp racked up 1,947 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns in what was perhaps the single most-impressive season by an NFL wide receiver. Kupp holds Bovada’s shortest touchdown-scorer odds at (-200).

While Stafford has Kupp, the Rams are slightly shallower at the skill positions than the Bengals. The Rams’ top non-Kupp receiver is mid-season acquisition Odell Beckham Jr. – his odds to score a touchdown currently sit at (+120).

Outside of those two pass-catchers, Stafford will be working with tight end Tyler Higbee (+225 odds to score a touchdown) and a running back tandem in Cam Akers (+110 odds to score a touchdown) and Sony Michel (+350 odds to score a touchdown).

On Burrow’s side, he will have three very good pass-catchers to work with: Offensive Rookie of the Year Ja’Marr Chase (+110 odds to score a touchdown), Tee Higgins (+150 odds to score a touchdown), and Tyler Boyd (+225 odds to score a touchdown).

Burrow will also have the aforementioned Mixon, who currently holds a total rushing yards over/under of 60.5 (O -114, U -114).

On top of these elite playmakers, Burrow will also have the emergent tight end C.J. Uzomah (+300 odds to score a touchdown) and change-of-pace back Samaje Perine (+500 odds to score a touchdown).

While oddsmakers clearly see Stafford and Burrow as equals, there are still some significant differences between their odds on legal sports betting sites.

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