Tom Brady

  • Betting player props for legendary quarterback Tom Brady will be a popular choice for Sunday’s Super Bowl, like Brady’s passing yards which currently sit at over/under 300.5 for -114 betting odds.
  • Other Brady props include +114 betting odds for him to throw over 2.5 touchdowns, and +110 betting odds for him to rush for over 0.5 yards.

TAMPA, Fla. – The hype for this year’s Super Bowl is reaching new levels of anticipation, largely due to the matchup between quarterbacks.

The two signal-callers for both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs have been the focus of most media approaching this Sunday’s game, and for good reason.

While Patrick Mahomes is looking to establish himself as the next big thing, Tom Brady has been the real deal for two decades.

Those looking to bet on the big game have keyed in on Tom Brady’s Super Bowl 55 player props currently available via the legal Super Bowl sportsbooks. Visiting and researching Brady’s trends over his illustrious career can lead to some valuable betting edges.

SB55 – Tom Brady Passing Yards

  • Over 300.5 -114
  • Under 300.5 -114

Over his 20 year career and six Super Bowl titles, Brady has had 15 300+ yard games in the playoffs or 34.1% of his playoff career.

This is a bit unfair of a stat, however, as many of Brady’s playoff runs occurred before the current pass-heavy meta took over the NFL. Long gone are the days of dominant defenses.

In Brady’s first Super Bowl run back in 2001 for example, he threw just one touchdown pass in three playoff games.

Things have massively changed in recent years.

In Brady’s 10 playoff games since 2017, he has thrown for 300+ yards in half of them, though this has only happened once in his last five playoff games.

Against the Chiefs, Brady will certainly have to put up big numbers to keep up with whatever Pat Mahomes is putting up on the other side.

There are few situations where Brady reaches over 300 yards and the Buccaneers do not win the Super Bowl. Likewise, the same goes for Brady’s touchdown passes.

SB55 – Tom Brady Touchdown Passes

  • Over 2.5 +114
  • Under 2.5 -149

For passing touchdowns, the Super Bowl betting sites are leaning towards Brady throwing under three touchdowns.

Those looking to bet on Brady’s touchdowns should note how they affect him winning in the playoffs.

In the past, getting the second passing touchdown means everything for Brady. In playoff games with 2 passing TDs, Brady is 11-3 (11-1 with 3+), but with only 1 TD, he sits at 6-6.

If Brady is able to get to three touchdowns, it almost doubles the Bucs’ chances of winning.

Those looking to wager on Brady to have over two touchdowns would might as well be better off betting the Tampa Bay moneyline, which currently sits around +145 odds.

The under for TDs also has value as Brady has thrown for 3+ TDs in only 4 of his last 15 games and will be going up against a capable Kansas City defense. However, it isn’t like he hasn’t done this before as his entire 2015 playoff run had 3+ TDs every game.

With a dominant run game working well behind Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette, Brady might not have to get to three touchdowns to pull out a win.

Instead, bettors could consider live betting on when Brady will put up his points. Looking at his season, Brady is much more productive in the second and fourth quarters.

Brady threw for 16 touchdowns in first and third quarters in 2020 and 26 touchdowns in second and fourth quarters. Naturally, with time running out on the clock Brady is at his most lethal.

He will still likely have plenty of chances to throw touchdowns in the Super Bowl, as the books have his line for passing completions somewhere around 25.

SB 55 – Tom Brady Pass Completions

  • Over 25.5 -125
  • Under 25.5 -103

The trend for completions is a bit skewed for Brady when in the postseason. Five of Brady’s last seven regular-season games have seen him complete 25+ passes.

However, only one of his last six playoff games has seen him throw for more than 25 passes.

This is likely to do with the strength of his team not needing Brady to throw the ball too much late in the game. Still, in the six playoff games before that, all six saw 25+ completions.

Against the Chiefs, Brady could easily be working from behind and find himself in a situation where he has to move the ball down the field. Dating back to 2016, Brady has played in 15 playoff games, with nine of them seeing 40+ pass attempts.

Those looking to bet his passing completions would likely find themselves rooting for the Chiefs to keep the score higher in order to keep Brady throwing the ball.

Naturally, with an uptick in passing attempts comes an uptick in interceptions, as the world saw against Green Bay in the NFC Championship.

SB 55 Tom Brady Interceptions

  • Over 0.5 -200
  • Under -0.5 +150

The sportsbooks are predicting at least one INT from Brady, but pass results show he is able to keep his sheet clean. Out of his 44 playoff games, Brady has 21 playoff games without an interception.

While Brady did throw three interceptions against the Packers, that was the first 3-INT playoff game for Brady since 2010. Since that 2010 game, Brady has played in 26 playoff games – 11 of them have been with 0 picks, while 1 pick has been seen in 7 games.

What it comes down to is that if Brady is able to hit the over on his passing lines, the Bucs will likely win the game.

Anyone looking to wager on the over of these bets should strongly consider the Buccaneers moneyline, which comes at a nice price. Those expecting a weak night from Brady are better off betting his unders in stats like completions and passing yards.

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