The political betting odds have shifted after Joe Biden had a number of surprise wins.

  • After Joe Biden’s strong showing on Super Tuesday, he is now the favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
  • Bernie Sanders performed well but fell short of expectations, largely because of a split progressive vote.
  • There are some notable disparities in election odds, which bodes well for those shopping lines.

AUSTIN, Texas – Going into Super Tuesday, the Democratic Primary appeared to be a tight race, but after outperforming expectations across the board, former Vice President Joe Biden is now the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

The surprise decision of former candidates Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg to drop out of the race on the eve of Super Tuesday likely contributed heavily to Biden’s win. Both endorsed Biden within 24 hours of dropping out.

Despite a lackluster performance in the first three early-voting states (Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada), Biden rallied with a decisive win in South Carolina and entered Super Tuesday with momentum.

Biden received a huge boost from having fewer moderate candidates to compete with, as it allowed moderate voters to consolidate behind his campaign. Biden managed to capture unexpected victories in both Massachusetts and Minnesota.

With many states heavily favored to go to one candidate or the other, the hotly contested state of Texas was the night’s biggest prize. Heading into Super Tuesday, Sanders was a -220 favorite in Texas, but Biden won out in both the popular vote and delegate count. This state alone was enough to change all candidate’s election odds.

Sanders steadily losing ground was a theme throughout the night, as the progressive vote was split between him and Senator Elizabeth Warren. Warren polled solidly, but unspectacularly, across the country. Even in her home state of Massachusetts, she finished third behind Biden and Sanders.

Elsewhere, former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s $500 million gamble won him exactly one primary, in American Samoa—a huge disappointment for such a lavish campaign. Bloomberg announced earlier on Wednesday that he would be ending his campaign and supporting Biden.

In lighter news, Hawaiian Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard captured her first delegate, in American Samoa, which could make her eligible for the next Democratic debate.

There are now 30 primary states that remain, but momentum appears to be on Biden’s side. Sanders is not yet out of the race, but after Super Tuesday, he has an uphill battle just to win a plurality of delegates. Bettors will likely begin shifting focus to Biden’s campaign.

How Did The Odds Change?

As expected, Biden’s strong performance vaulted his odds well ahead of Sanders. Odds for Bloomberg and Warren held steady as they were already viewed as unlikely candidates to win.

The primary could still end in a brokered convention, as neither Sanders nor Biden are on track to win a majority of delegates. If that happens, the odds greatly favor Biden. In 2016, superdelegates voted overwhelmingly (93%) in favor of moderate Hillary Clinton over Sanders.

Will Democrats to have a brokered convention in 2020?:

  • “No” -650
  • “Yes” +400

There is some opportunity for bettors to shop lines for the Democratic nomination now. Online sportsbooks do show a bit of disparity for each nominee so there could be a chance for bettors to cash in on the candidate they believe could win the 30 remaining states. There are also surprise candidates.

As of Wednesday morning, betting odds on the winner of the 2020 Democratic Primary were as follows:

Bovada:

2020 Democratic Primary Winner:

  • Joe Biden -450
  • Bernie Sanders +400
  • Hillary Clinton +3000
  • Elizabeth Warren +5000
  • Michelle Obama +8000
  • Tulsi Gabbard +50000

BetOnline:

2020 Democratic Primary Winner:

  • Joe Biden -450
  • Bernie Sanders +400
  • Hillary Clinton +3300
  • Elizabeth Warren +5000

MyBookie:

2020 Democratic Primary Winner:

  • Joe Biden -500
  • Bernie Sanders +350
  • Hillary Clinton +3000
  • Elizabeth Warren +5000
  • Michelle Obama +8000
  • Tulsi Gabbard +50000

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